How Q4 Replenishment Patterns Should Change Your Q1 Variant Mix

You sold a fleece pullover in two colors and four sizes to 24 retailers. Almost every opening order looked the same, because most of them came from the same size prepack. By mid-December, 16 of those retailers have come back for more Oatmeal medium, and almost nobody has asked for XL in either color.

Your season report doesn't show that clearly. It shows total units by variant, and those totals are mostly opening orders. So the January line sheet starts as a copy of the holiday mix: the same size curve, the same prepack, and the same depth in variants that retailers never reordered.

That matters, because your January assortment sets Q1 production, your prepacks, and the first orders retailers place for Valentine's Day and spring. A wrong mix means thin stock in the variants retailers want and slow stock in the ones they don't.

The best guide to your Q1 variant mix is replenishment demand: which sizes, colors, and flavors retailers came back for, how many accounts came back, and how often. This guide explains how that differs from opening-order demand, gives you a simple replenishment index with a worked example, shows how to clean the holiday signal, how to pull the numbers from Shopify, and how to put the new mix into your wholesale store.

Short answer: Set your Q1 variant mix from replenishment demand, not just opening orders. For each variant, compare its share of holiday top-up units with its share of opening-order units, and check how many retailers reordered it. Expand the variants retailers kept coming back for, reduce the ones that only sold because they were in the prepack, and retire holiday-only colors, flavors, and scents, after allowing for returns and stock-outs.

TL;DR

• Opening orders show what retailers guessed would sell. Top-ups show what actually sold on their shelves.

• Compare each variant's share of top-up units with its share of opening units. A replenishment index above about 1.2 means retailers under-bought it.

• Count accounts, not just units. A variant reordered by many retailers is a stronger signal than one big reorder.

• Clean the holiday signal before you use it, because gift buying, post-Christmas returns, and your own stock-outs all distort it.

• Turn the result into Keep, Expand, Reduce, or Retire for each variant, then update your size curves, prepacks, and case packs.

• Shopify's variant and B2B reports give you the raw numbers, and a spreadsheet does the comparison.

Opening-Order Demand vs Replenishment Demand: Two Different Signals

Opening-order demand is what retailers bought before the season, based on their own forecast, your line sheet, and your prepacks. Replenishment demand is what they reordered after the products reached their shelves, based on real sell-through. For assortment decisions, replenishment demand is the stronger signal.

The two orders do different jobs. Opening orders are about breadth and top-ups are about depth: the first order tries a range, and the top-up doubles down on what proved itself. That's why the two kinds of demand tell you different things about your variants.

Season totals hide this difference. Opening orders are usually the bigger share of units, so they dominate any report that adds the whole season together. A variant can look like a steady seller in the totals when most of its units came from a prepack that every retailer bought.

Why Holiday Top-Ups Are the Better Guide to Your January Assortment

A top-up is a deliberate decision. The retailer spends money mid-season, places another order, and waits for another delivery, so they only do it for variants that are selling. Opening orders, on the other hand, include variants that came along in a prepack or were added to reach an order minimum.

Comparing the two shows you where the opening mix was wrong. A variant that makes up a bigger share of top-ups than of opening orders was under-bought. A variant that makes up a smaller share was over-bought. And a variant topped up by many accounts, more than once, is the strongest demand signal you'll see all year.

This is the step in the Q4 wholesale replenishment lifecycle where holiday sell-through turns into next season's plan. During the season, retailers restock only the variants that sold. Your job now is to read all of those small restocks together and see the pattern behind them.

Top-ups have a weakness, though. They're smaller, they come from fewer accounts, and holiday gift buying shapes them. That's why the method below uses both signals instead of throwing the opening orders away.

How to Set Your Q1 Variant Mix From Holiday Top-Ups

To set your Q1 variant mix, split Q4 orders into opening orders and top-ups, compare each variant's share of both, count the accounts behind each number, and blend the two into a new mix. Here are the six steps, followed by a worked example.

Step 1: Split your Q4 orders into opening orders and top-ups

Shopify's reports don't separate opening orders from top-ups for you, so draw the line yourself. The simplest way is a date: orders placed before the holiday delivery window (say, by October 31) count as opening orders, and orders after it count as top-ups. If your accounts received their first delivery at different times, use each account's first delivery date instead. Next year, tag orders as "opening" or "top-up" when they come in, and this step takes minutes.

Step 2: Calculate each variant's opening share and top-up share

Work one product (one style) at a time, so you compare sizes and colors of the same item.

• Opening share = the variant's opening-order units ÷ the product's total opening-order units

• Top-up share = the variant's top-up units ÷ the product's total top-up units

Step 3: Calculate the replenishment index

Replenishment index = top-up share ÷ opening share

As a starting point, read it like this:

• Above about 1.2: retailers came back for it more than they first bought it, so it was under-bought.

• About 0.8 to 1.2: the opening mix was close to right.

• Below about 0.8: it was over-bought, often because it came in the prepack.

These thresholds are rules of thumb, not fixed rules. Adjust them once you've seen a season or two of your own data.

Step 4: Count the accounts behind each number

Units alone can mislead you, because one large account can make a variant look strong. So also calculate the reorder rate by variant: the number of accounts that topped up the variant ÷ the number of accounts that carried it. Then note how many accounts topped it up more than once. A variant reordered by 16 of 24 accounts, seven of them twice, is a far safer bet than a variant reordered heavily by one store.

Step 5: Blend the two signals into a new mix

Don't replace the opening mix with the top-up mix. Blend them. A good starting weight is:

Blended Q1 share = (0.6 × top-up share) + (0.4 × opening share)

Give top-ups more weight when many accounts reordered and the variant isn't gift-driven. Give them less weight when only a few accounts reordered or when holiday gifting clearly drove the demand.

Step 6: Assign Keep, Expand, Reduce, or Retire

Give every variant one of four Q1 actions:

• Expand: a high index and a high reorder rate. Add depth.

• Keep: an index close to 1. The opening mix was about right.

• Reduce: a low index and few reorders. Cut depth, but keep a floor if the variant completes a size run.

• Retire: holiday-only variants, and variants that didn't sell or reorder at all.

A worked example: one pullover, eight variants, 24 retailers

Here's an illustrative example. A wholesaler sells a fleece pullover in Oatmeal and Forest, sizes S to XL, to 24 retailers. Opening orders in September and October totaled 480 units, mostly from a 2-4-4-2 size prepack in each color. Top-ups from November 1 to December 15 totaled 300 units. Forest S sold out in the warehouse on December 3.

Take Oatmeal M. It was 15% of opening units but 26% of top-up units, so its index is 26 ÷ 15 = 1.73. Retailers came back for it far more than they first bought it, and 16 of 24 accounts reordered it. Forest S looks only moderately strong at 1.2, but it sold out on December 3, so its real demand was higher than the top-ups show. That's why it moves to Expand.

Now say the wholesaler plans a smaller Q1 buy of 300 units for this style. Using the 60/40 blend:

The most useful finding isn't in any single row. The two colors now have different size curves. Oatmeal's 12-unit prepack moves from 2-4-4-2 to 2-5-4-1, because it sells through the middle sizes. Forest's moves from 2-4-4-2 to 3-4-3-2, because it skews smaller. Using one prepack for every color was hiding that. XL drops in both colors but doesn't go to zero, so retailers can still offer a full size run. And because Forest S sold out, treat its three units per prepack as a minimum, not a ceiling.

This method works alongside the usual inventory KPIs like turnover, sales velocity, and sell-through rate. Those tell you how a product performs overall. The replenishment index tells you how to split its depth across variants.

Clean the Holiday Signal Before You Trust It

Holiday data is the best data you'll get, but it's also the most distorted. Before you lock the mix, check each of these.

Gift demand isn't January demand

Gift sets, red and gold finishes, gift-friendly sizes, and holiday flavors or scents get topped up because people are buying presents. That demand mostly ends on December 25. Flag gift-driven variants before you calculate, so a high index doesn't push a seasonal variant into your January line.

Returns arrive after Christmas

Retailers expected 17% of 2025 holiday sales to be returned, according to the National Retail Federation. And the timing is concentrated: Adobe found that 1 in 7 online holiday-season returns happened between December 26 and 31. Returns land back on your retailers' shelves in late December and early January, and some sizes and colors come back more than others. Use mid-December data for your draft, then ask key accounts in early January whether returns changed the picture.

Your own stock-outs hide demand

If a variant sold out in your warehouse, its top-up count is a floor, not the real number. Add the orders you couldn't fill and the requests you turned away. Forest S in the example is exactly this case.

One big account can skew the numbers

A single large retailer can make a variant look strong across your whole wholesale business. That's why the reorder rate counts accounts. If most of a variant's top-up units came from one account, treat that as that account's preference, not a market signal.

Discounts can pull orders forward

If you ran a holiday wholesale promotion, some "top-ups" were really stock-ups at a lower price. Handling repeat wholesale orders after BFCM is easier when you compare top-ups placed during the promotion with those placed after it. If a variant only reordered during the discount, it's a weaker Q1 signal.

Small numbers are noisy

Two reorders aren't a trend. For variants with fewer than about three reordering accounts, stay close to the opening mix and watch them again in Q1.

What the New Mix Looks Like for Sizes, Colors, Flavors, and Scents

The method is the same in every category, but the pattern you find is different. Here's what holiday replenishment usually looks like, and the Q1 decision it points to.

For apparel, the per-color size curve from the pullover example is the main change, and it applies to any brand managing size runs and colorways across many accounts.

Flavors work the same way, with one twist. Say a snack brand sells a holiday mixed case. Peppermint Bark has the highest replenishment index of any flavor, but it's seasonal, so it leaves the Q1 line and goes on the list for next October. Sea Salt held a steady share in both opening orders and top-ups, so it becomes the anchor of the January case. If you sell flavor case packs and MOQs, rebalance the case around the steady flavors rather than the holiday spike.

When to Lock Your January Assortment

Post-holiday assortment planning works best on a short timeline: draft the Q1 mix in mid-December, check it against returns in late December, and finalize it in the first half of January. Waiting longer costs you more than it gains, because retailers start Q1 buying early.

Faire's 2026 wholesale buying calendar, which is based on search activity on its marketplace, shows Valentine's Day demand peaking in January and spring planning concentrated between December and February. So your January assortment needs to be in your store by early January, not at the end of the month.

A simple timeline:

• Mid-December: Draft the mix from top-ups placed through about December 15.

• December 26 to early January: Watch returns, and ask your top accounts how January is starting.

• First half of January: Finalize the mix, update prepacks and the store, and send the line sheet.

From there, the next step is turning the new mix into each retailer's first planned Q1 purchase order.

How to Pull Opening and Top-Up Demand From Shopify

Shopify gives you the raw numbers by variant, and you compare them in a spreadsheet. Here's how to get them.

1. In Analytics → Reports, open Total sales by product variant, one of Shopify's default sales reports. Set the date range to your opening-order window and export it. Then do the same for your top-up window.

2. If you use Shopify B2B, add the filter Is B2B order = Yes so retail orders don't mix in. Then add Company name or Company location name as a dimension to count how many accounts bought each variant. Shopify lets you use these B2B labels as a dimension or filter for any sales-related metric.

3. If you sell wholesale without Shopify B2B, use the Sales by customer name report, or filter by the customer tags you use for wholesale accounts.

4. Check your own stock with the inventory reports: Products by sell-through rate, Inventory remaining per product, and ABC product analysis.

5. Put both exports in one sheet and calculate the shares, the index, and the reorder rate.

Shopify B2B is available on the Basic, Grow, Advanced, and Plus plans, but not on Starter or Retail, according to Shopify's B2B plan features. Shopify's help pages don't list plan availability for every report, so check which reports your plan includes before you build the process around them.

Put the New Variant Mix Into Your Wholesale Store

A new plan only helps if January orders follow it. These changes make that happen.

• Update prepacks and case packs. If Oatmeal now sells 2-5-4-1, the Oatmeal prepack should be 2-5-4-1. An old prepack quietly rebuilds the old mix in every order.

• Set minimums per style where you can. A per-variant minimum forces retailers to buy depth in every size. A minimum across the whole style lets them follow the new curve. Shopify's native quantity rules are set per variant, so a style-level minimum across variants isn't directly supported without additional steps.

• Put Expand variants first. Show the variants you're adding depth to where buyers see them first, and remove or hide Retire variants so nobody orders them by mistake.

• Show stock on each variant. January buyers shouldn't build an order around a variant you've cut or haven't restocked yet.

• Plan variant edits around the admin change. Shopify's new variant editor rolls out to stores from December 2026, so variant changes you make for January may happen in the new admin layout.

Where MultiVariants Fits in Your Q1 Variant Mix

MultiVariants is a Shopify app by EFOLI that adds a multi-variant order table to product pages, so buyers can enter quantities for many sizes, colors, or flavors and add them to the cart at once. It doesn't decide your mix, but it helps your store show the new mix and enforce it.

• Show the new curve clearly. A size-by-color product can display as a matrix or grid (Standard plan), so a buyer sees all eight cells at once and fills them in to match your new prepack. Table and list layouts work for flavors and scents.

• Make the minimum fit the mix. On the Professional plan, you can set a minimum or maximum per variant or for the combined total, so a style-level minimum works. You can also set a minimum per option (for example, at least 12 in one color), limit how many variants go in one order, and use incremental steps so case packs stay in multiples of 6 or 12.

• Keep retired variants out of orders. The free Starter plan shows stock on each variant, adds an out-of-stock badge, and can hide out-of-stock variants.

• Keep wholesale pricing on the same page. The Standard plan adds B2B catalog pricing and lets you apply settings to specific product groups, such as only the styles with a new curve.

MultiVariants doesn't calculate a replenishment index, split opening orders from top-ups, analyze sell-through, or forecast demand. Those come from Shopify's reports and your spreadsheet. The app's job is the ordering side: making it easy for retailers to order multiple product variants in the mix you've planned. You can see what each plan includes on the MultiVariants pricing page or the Shopify App Store listing.

Common Mistakes When Planning a Q1 Variant Mix

• Copying the holiday opening order into the January line sheet. It repeats the guesses you made before the season started.

• Reading season totals. Opening orders dominate the totals and hide what retailers came back for.

• Counting units instead of accounts. One big reorder isn't the same as broad demand.

• Treating gift-driven variants as evergreen. Holiday colors, flavors, and scents rarely carry into January.

• Finalizing before returns settle. The last week of December changes the size and color picture.

• Ignoring your own stock-outs. A variant that sold out looks weaker than it really was.

• Cutting fringe sizes to zero. Retailers need a full size run on core styles, even if XL only gets one unit per prepack.

• Changing the plan but not the store. If prepacks, case packs, and minimums stay the same, January orders will follow the old mix.

Conclusion

Opening orders tell you what retailers expected to sell. Top-ups tell you what their customers actually bought. When you compare the two variant by variant, count the accounts behind them, and clean out gift demand, returns, and stock-outs, you get a Q1 variant mix built on proven demand instead of last season's guesses.

Then make the store match the plan. Update your prepacks and case packs, set minimums that let retailers follow the new curve, and show buyers the variants you're expanding first.

The timing is tight. Draft the mix from top-ups in mid-December, check it against returns after Christmas, and have it live by early January, before retailers place their Valentine's and spring orders.