How to Build the First Q1 Purchase Order From Holiday Top-Ups

On December 12, a gift shop that carries your candles emails at 9 p.m. They're out of Cedar & Smoke again, it's their third top-up since Thanksgiving, and they want it shipped express. You make it happen. Then Christmas passes, the emails stop, and in the first week of January nobody orders anything.

That quiet stretch is where many wholesale accounts slip. In Q4 the retailer ordered because a shelf was empty. In January there's no empty shelf forcing the decision, cash is tighter after the holidays, and returns are still coming back. If you wait for the retailer to work out their first Q1 purchase order on their own, it often arrives late, arrives small, or doesn't arrive at all.

The cost of guessing is real. IHL Group estimates that inventory distortion, meaning the combined cost of out-of-stocks and overstocks, costs retailers $1.73 trillion a year worldwide. A January order copied from the holiday order adds to both sides of that number.

The first Q1 purchase order should be built from what each retailer already told you in Q4. The variants they restocked more than once, the evergreen products that kept selling, the seasonal lines that should stop, and the depth they kept running short of are all in their order history. This guide shows how to read those signals for one account, turn them into a planned January reorder with a worked example, and make the next order simpler than the holiday scramble.

Short answer: Build the first Q1 purchase order account by account from that retailer's Q4 behavior. Give planned depth to the variants they topped up two or more times, keep evergreen winners at a steady level, drop holiday-only lines, size each line to cover the weeks until the next planned order at a slower January pace, subtract what's still on their shelf after returns, and round to your case packs. Then agree on a date for the next order so January doesn't depend on another emergency.

TL;DR

• A Q4 top-up is a reaction to an empty shelf. The first Q1 purchase order is a plan, so it should be built on purpose, not left to the retailer.

• Read five signals per account: repeat top-ups, evergreen winners, seasonal lines to drop, depth shortfalls, and how hard ordering was for them.

• Size each line as January weekly sales × weeks until the next order − units on hand, then round to the case pack.

• Don't use holiday weekly sales as your January pace. Ask the retailer how January usually compares, or use last year's numbers.

• Treat the order as part reorder, part opening order: proven variants get depth, and one or two new spring items get a small test.

• Shopify B2B gives you reorders, draft orders, PO numbers, and payment terms. You still decide what goes in the order.

What Is the First Q1 Purchase Order?

The first Q1 purchase order is the first planned wholesale order a retailer places after the holiday season, usually in January. Unlike a Q4 top-up, which reacts to stock running out, it's built ahead of time from the retailer's holiday order history, and it sets the depth, the variants, and the rhythm for their next few months.

It sits at the end of the Q4 wholesale replenishment cycle. The opening order tried a range, the holiday top-ups doubled down on what sold, and this post-holiday reorder turns those lessons into a normal buying rhythm. In short, it's the handoff from holiday replenishment to planned buying.

It's also different from setting your own January assortment. When you're setting your Q1 variant mix from holiday top-ups, you look across all your accounts to decide which sizes, colors, and flavors you'll stock and push in Q1. The first Q1 purchase order works one level down: it takes that mix and fits it to one retailer's shelf, sales pace, and cash.

The Q4-to-Q1 Handoff: From Emergency Top-Ups to a Planned Order

Holiday top-ups and the first January order look similar in your order list, because both are reorders from an existing account. They are built in opposite ways.

Opening orders and top-ups ask for different things, and the first Q1 purchase order borrows from both. Most of it is a reorder of proven variants, which needs depth and speed. A small part of it is an opening order for spring, which needs room to try something new.

The handoff matters because a retailer who only ever reorders in emergencies keeps paying for rush shipping and keeps running out. Every rushed top-up in December is a sign that the planned depth was missing. The first Q1 order is your chance to put that depth back into a planned order.

The Five Q4 Signals to Read for Each Account

Each retailer's Q4 orders hold five signals. Read them one account at a time, because two shops that bought the same opening order can need very different January orders.

Repeat-restocked variants

A variant a retailer reordered two or three times in six weeks is the strongest signal you'll get from that account. Each top-up cost them time and shipping, so they only did it because the product kept selling. These variants become the core of the January order. Count how many times each one was restocked, not just how many units were ordered.

Evergreen winners

Some variants sold well all season without being restocked, because the opening order happened to be deep enough. They're easy to miss, because they never appeared in a top-up. Compare units sold with units ordered: if most of the opening quantity is gone and the product isn't seasonal, it belongs in the January order.

Seasonal lines to reduce

This is where the raw numbers will mislead you. A holiday scent can have one of the highest sales rates in the account and still have no place in January. Mark every holiday-only scent, flavor, color, and gift set before you calculate anything, and leave them out of Q1. If the retailer still has some on the shelf, that's a markdown or storage decision for them, not a reason to reorder.

Depth shortfalls

Rush shipping, two top-ups in the same week, and partial fills are all signs that the account ran too lean. Sometimes the cause was on your side: if one of your variants sold out and you couldn't ship it, the retailer's demand was higher than the order shows. If you handled a variant that sold out mid-restock for this account, add those unfilled units back before you plan.

Ordering friction

Look at how the account ordered, not just what. A retailer who emailed photos of their shelf, called your sales rep, or needed you to rebuild orders by hand will keep doing that in Q1 unless the process gets easier. Fixing this is part of the order plan, and the section on making the next reorder simpler covers it.

How to Build the First Q1 Purchase Order, Step by Step

This is the core of the work. Do it for your top accounts first, then use the same template for the rest.

Step 1: Pull the account's Q4 orders by variant

List every order the account placed from its opening order through December, with each variant and quantity. Mark which order was the opening order, which were top-ups, and which shipped rushed. If you sell through Shopify B2B, you can filter sales reports to B2B orders and add the company as a dimension (see the Shopify section below).

Step 2: Get the retailer's on-hand count after returns

Ask the retailer what's still on their shelf in the first week of January. Waiting for this matters: retailers expected 17% of 2025 holiday sales to be returned, and returned items go back on their shelves. Your own order data can't see that stock, so a short message asking for counts on your variants is worth sending. If the retailer won't share counts, use units ordered minus your best estimate of units sold, and say it's an estimate.

Step 3: Label each variant with one action

Use five labels:

• Core: repeat-restocked and not seasonal. Planned depth.

• Keep: evergreen and selling, but not restocked often. Steady level.

• Let sell through: still on the shelf and selling slowly. No reorder this time.

• Retire for Q1: seasonal or gift-driven. No reorder until next Q4.

• Test: a new spring item. One case, so the shelf has something new.

Step 4: Estimate January weekly sales

Divide each variant's Q4 units sold by the number of Q4 selling weeks. Then adjust it down for January, because holiday traffic is gone. The best source is the retailer: ask how their January and February usually compare with Q4, or check last year's orders for the same account. In the example below, the retailer said January runs at a bit under half of their Q4 pace, so the factor is 0.45. Your factor will differ by category and by shop, so don't copy it.

Step 5: Size each line

Use one formula for every Core and Keep variant:

Planned units = January weekly sales × weeks until the next planned order − units on hand

The weeks until the next planned order are your cover period. If the next order is planned for early March and this one ships in mid-January, that's about eight weeks. For deeper analysis, such as turnover or days of inventory, the inventory KPIs like turnover and sell-through rate give you more ways to check the math.

Step 6: Round to case packs and check your minimums

Round each line to your case pack. A simple rule: round to the nearest case, and round up one case for variants that were restocked three or more times or needed a rush shipment. Give any Keep variant at least one case if the shelf would run out before the next order. Then check the total against your reorder minimum.

Step 7: Send the proposal and set the next order date

Send the retailer a draft order, not a question. A ready order with a short reason for each line is far easier to approve than "Do you need anything for January?" Include the ship date, the payment terms, and the date you'll check in about the next order.

Worked Example: One Gift Shop's First January Order

This is an illustrative example, not customer data. A candle brand sells to a single-location home and gift shop. The shop's opening order arrived in early October, and it had about 12 selling weeks through December. The case pack is 6 units for 8 oz candles and 4 units for 14 oz candles. Wholesale prices are $14 and $22.

The shop's Q4 history:

The first Q1 purchase order (January pace = Q4 weekly sales × 0.45, cover = 8 weeks):

Here's the math for the top line. Cedar & Smoke 8 oz sold 56 units in 12 weeks, which is about 4.7 a week. At the January pace that's about 2.1 a week, or 16.8 units over eight weeks. The shop still has 4, so it needs about 12.8. That rounds to 12, but the variant was restocked three times and once needed express shipping, so it gets one more case, for 18.

Three things in this example are worth noticing.

The biggest Q4 seller isn't in the order. On raw numbers, Spiced Cranberry would earn about 12 units, because it sold almost as fast as Cedar & Smoke. It's a holiday scent, so it's retired for Q1 and parked for next October. This is the most common mistake in a January reorder.

The order is much smaller than the opening order. That's normal. The opening order was 150 units because it had to fill a holiday shelf with no sales history. The first Q1 order is 34 units because it covers eight slower weeks, with real data behind every line. A smaller, well-built order is better for the retailer than a large one they can't sell through.

One line is a test, not a reorder. Faire's 2026 buying calendar shows Easter searches on its platform climbing from 953 in November to over 13,000 by January, with a concentrated planning period from December to February. Retailers are already thinking about spring in January, so one case of a spring scent gives them something new without risking much.

What to Send the Retailer

The proposal should take the retailer less than a minute to approve. Keep it short and give a reason for each decision, so they can see you used their numbers.

Hi Maya, here's a suggested first order for January, based on what sold in your shop this holiday.

• Cedar & Smoke 8 oz: 18 (you restocked it three times, so we've added one extra case)

• Fig Leaf 8 oz: 6

• Cedar & Smoke 14 oz: 4

• Rhubarb & Rose 8 oz: 6 (new for spring, one case to try)

We left out Sea Salt Linen because you still have 14 on the shelf, and the holiday scents are paused until next fall.

Total: 34 units, $508. It can ship January 13 on your usual net 30 terms. We'll check in around February 20 about your spring order. Reply with any changes, or approve the draft order here: [link]

The last line matters most. A set check-in date turns this single order into a rhythm, which is the real goal of the first Q1 purchase order.

How to Get the Numbers in Shopify

Shopify's reports give you most of the raw data, but they don't build the order for you.

1. Find the account's orders. In Shopify B2B, open the company in your admin to see its orders, or filter the Orders list by that company. Without B2B, filter orders by the customer or by a wholesale customer tag.

2. Pull units by variant. In Analytics, the Total sales by product variant report shows units by variant for any date range. If you use Shopify B2B, add the Is B2B order filter and the Company name or Company location name dimension to see one account at a time. Shopify lets you use these B2B labels as a dimension or filter on sales-related reports.

3. Separate opening orders from top-ups. Shopify's reports don't label orders this way. Split them by date range, or tag top-up orders as they come in so next year is easier.

4. Check your own stock. Before you promise depth, confirm that you can ship the Core lines. The inventory reports, such as Products by sell-through rate and Inventory remaining per product, show your side of the picture.

5. Build the plan in a spreadsheet. Copy the variant export, add the retailer's on-hand counts, and apply the formula.

Plan availability differs for some reports, so check which ones your plan includes.

Make the Next Order Simpler Than the Holiday Scramble

The fifth signal, ordering friction, is the one you fix in the store. If the account emailed or phoned in its top-ups, give it a faster way to place the next order.

Shopify B2B's native tools. Shopify B2B is available on the Basic, Grow, Advanced, and Plus plans, and all four include net payment terms, quick order lists, easy reorders, and draft orders with PO numbers, along with quantity rules and volume pricing.

• Draft orders are the natural way to send the first Q1 purchase order. You build the order, the retailer reviews and pays it, and a PO number can be added.

• Payment terms can be set per company location: net 7, 15, 30, 45, 60, or 90, or due on fulfillment. A fixed due date can be set on individual draft orders, which helps when a retailer asks to pay after January's slow weeks.

• Easy reorders let B2B customers duplicate a past order from their customer account and edit it before checkout. Be careful in January: duplicating a holiday order brings back the seasonal lines, so the retailer needs to remove them.

• Quick order lists let buyers add several variants of a product to the cart in one step.

• Quantity rules set a minimum, maximum, or increment for each variant, which keeps orders in case packs. Shopify's native quantity rules are set per variant, so a minimum across a whole product or style needs additional steps.

Shopify B2B's features don't include a built-in reminder for the next planned order, so many wholesalers use a calendar reminder and a sales rep's check-in. Reorder apps and flows can send reminders, but automating B2B reorders suits steady repeat orders best, and January is exactly when the order should change, not repeat.

If your accounts mostly order once a month, the habits behind repeat wholesale orders after BFCM apply to the Q1 rhythm too: check stock, minimums, and pricing before each order is confirmed.

Where MultiVariants Fits

MultiVariants is a Shopify app by EFOLI that adds a multi-variant order table to product pages, so buyers can enter quantities for many sizes, colors, scents, or flavors and add them to the cart at once. For the first Q1 purchase order, it helps when the retailer orders the next round on their own:

• Buyers see every variant of a product in one table, list, grid, or matrix, with stock shown per variant, so they can rebuild the core lines quickly.

• Out-of-stock variants can be hidden or marked, so a retailer doesn't plan around something you can't ship.

• Order rules can match your case packs and minimums: incremental steps (multiples of 6, for example), minimums and maximums per variant or across a product's combined total, and a minimum per option. These rules are on the Professional plan.

• B2B catalog prices and customer eligibility settings let you show the order table only to wholesale buyers. These are on the Standard plan.

Most January reorders are a case of ordering multiple product variants at once, which is the job the app was built for.

What it doesn't do matters just as much. MultiVariants doesn't read order history, calculate January depth, build purchase orders, save order templates, or remind retailers to reorder. The planning in this guide happens in Shopify's reports and a spreadsheet, and the order proposal goes out through a draft order or your own message. Plans and prices are listed on the MultiVariants pricing page and the Shopify App Store listing.

When the First Q1 Order Should Be Smaller, Later, or Skipped

The method assumes a healthy account with clear Q4 data. Some accounts need a different approach.

• The retailer is overstocked after returns. If most Core variants already cover eight weeks, skip the January order and plan a smaller one in February.

• The account only bought holiday products. A shop that ordered gift sets and seasonal scents has no evergreen signal. Treat its January order as a new opening order for spring.

• The account never topped up. One opening order and no reorders means you don't know what sold. Ask for a sell-through count before proposing anything.

• Your own stock-outs capped their top-ups. Their numbers show what you could ship, not what they wanted. Add the unfilled units back before sizing.

• Cash is tight. Offer a smaller first order with a second planned ship date, or longer terms if your policy allows it, rather than a large order they'll refuse.

• One huge top-up skews the picture. A single big reorder for an event or a corporate gift job isn't a pattern. Look for repeats.

Common Mistakes With the First January Reorder

1. Waiting for the retailer to ask. In January there's no empty shelf prompting the order. Send a proposal.

2. Reordering the holiday bestsellers. Seasonal scents, flavors, and colors can top the Q4 report and still belong in next October.

3. Using the holiday sales pace. Holiday weekly sales overstate January. Adjust them down with the retailer's own numbers.

4. Ignoring the shelf count. Returns and leftover stock change the order. Ask before you size it.

5. Copying the opening order. The opening order was built for a holiday shelf with no data. The January order has data, so it should look different.

6. Leaving out anything new. A January order with only reorders gives the shop nothing new to show for spring.

7. Sending a question instead of an order. "Need anything for January?" is easy to ignore. A draft order with reasons isn't.

8. Not setting the next date. Without a planned next order, the account goes back to ordering only when something runs out.

Where the Q4 Cycle Ends

The first Q1 purchase order closes the holiday cycle. The opening order filled the shelf, the top-ups showed what sold, restocking only the variants that sold kept those top-ups lean, and your Q1 variant mix decided what you'll stock for the new year. This order takes all of that and turns it into a planned rhythm for each account.

From here, the account moves to a regular reorder cycle: a planned order every six to ten weeks, depending on how fast your products sell, with check-ins between. The next time the cycle restarts is the opening order for next year's holiday season, and the notes you kept on this account's Q4 signals are the best starting point for it.

Conclusion

A good Q1 purchase order isn't a copy of the holiday order or a guess made in a quiet week. It's built from what each retailer showed you in Q4: the variants they restocked more than once, the evergreen products that kept selling, the seasonal lines that should stop, and the depth they kept running short of.

Read those signals one account at a time, size each line for January's slower pace and the retailer's real shelf count, round to your case packs, and send a ready draft order with a reason for each line. Then set the date of the next order. That's how holiday emergencies become a normal January reorder, and how a good Q4 account stays a good account in Q1.